"Trust but verify." Reagan said that in the context of the Cold War, but we think this advice is more widely applicable. We don't expect you to take our word for it that our lifecycle strategy dominates more traditional retirement investment strategies. We invite you to explore the data for yourself. Below are the datasets used in our analysis. Note that the files require Excel 2007 or higher.
Core_simulation.xlsx (43 MB) — this file contains the simulations, including the start late, start early, P/E- adjusted, and Social-Security-included variations, on 138 years of U.S. market data (1871–2009).
UK_simulation.xlsx (11 MB) — this file contains the simulation on historical UK data (1937–2009), using the FTSE All-Shares.
Japan_simulation.xlsx (9 MB) — this file contains the simulation on historical Japanese data (1950–2009), using the Nikkei 225. (This file has been revised to correct the JPY-USD exchange rate. See the relevent corrections to the book here.)
Distributional_Monte_Carlo.xlsx (318 MB) — WARNING: This massive file requires a great deal of processing power. If your computer does not run 64-bit Windows or an equivalently powerful platform, you may not be able to even open the file. Also note that some of the strategy names are flipped in this file: the birthday rule is called "life-cycle strategy" and the lifecycle strategy is called "target strategy."